Impact of Tropical Storm Filipo on South Africa
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has provided insights into the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Filipo on the region. According to deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models from various sources, it's likely that the bulk of heavy rainfall, especially on Monday and Tuesday, will be confined to southern Mozambique.
However, there remains a significant probability of extremely heavy rainfall across the lowveld areas of Mpumalanga and Limpopo on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. In Mpumalanga, there's a chance of rainfall being enhanced by local topography, particularly along the eastern Escarpment region on Wednesday. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in neighboring regions such as the Kingdom of Eswatini, the southern Lowveld (including the Kruger National Park), and northeastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
Major rivers like the Olifants, Letaba, Sabie, and Sand rivers, along with the Crocodile River in the far south of Kruger National Park, are expected to experience significant flow increases, possibly leading to flooding from midweek onwards.
Furthermore, a prolonged period of exceptionally heavy rainfall is forecasted for Wednesday in northeastern KwaZulu-Natal, particularly along the coastal areas and hinterlands north of Richards Bay.
By Thursday, the intense rain is expected to cease entirely as the system moves eastward, exiting southern Africa and heading into the southern Indian Ocean. SAWS will continue to monitor developments and issue updates as necessary.
Weather Forecast for Tuesday, March 12th
SAWS has also released its weather forecast for Tuesday, March 12th, highlighting severe thunderstorms, flooding, and heatwave conditions across multiple provinces.
Weather Warnings for March 12th